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As a columnist and a blogger, I’ve always tried to have strong opinions on subjects I know something about. I seldom, however, have opinions on the outcome of games because they are not something of which I have any degree of expertise. Few people do, as much as they might think otherwise.
That’s why I’m always surprised at how quick some people are to throw out not just predictions of victory but even final scores. Just the other day, someone predicted a 31-0 Steelers' victory over the New York Jets tonight. Based on what?
The AFC title game between the Steelers and Jets at Heinz Field has been bandied about all week. All areas of both teams have been thoroughly examined and reexamined. The strengths and weaknesses of the teams and their coaches have been weighed and evaluated.
After reading much, but not nearly all, of these examinations I have no idea which team will win. The teams are simply too close in talent to know convincingly which will win. Arguments can be made for both sides. And those arguments can easily be countered.
One of the most popular reasons to predict a Steelers win is the large edge they have at the most important position on the field: quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s possible the Jets' Mark Sanchez will some day be in that category, but at this date he’s not even close.
Therefore, the Steelers win.
Except for this: In the eyes of most people outside of Pittsburgh, New England had a larger edge at quarterback over the Jets than the Steelers do. But the Jets still beat New England handily and Sanchez, to the astonishment of all, outplayed the great, and I say that with respect not ridicule, Tom Brady.
If the Jets with Sanchez can beat the Patriots with Brady, they can beat the Steelers with Roethlisberger. Anyone who denies that is refusing to face reality.
That’s not to say the Jets will win. It’s just to say any argument put forth can be rather easily dismantled.
Statistically, the teams are ridiculously close.
Offensively, the Steelers were ninth in the AFC in yards and sixth in points. The Jets were sixth in yards and seventh in points.
Defensively, the Steelers were second in fewest yards allowed, first in fewest points allowed. The Jets were third in yards, sixth in points.
If there's an edge statistically, it goes to the Steelers. But that slight advantage is mostly negated by the fact the Jets easily handled the New England offense, which was far and away the most productive in the NFL.
That the Steelers have home field would figure to be an significant advantage but that is negated, somewhat, by the fact the Jets are fresh from winning at Indianapolis and at New England.
The Steelers are more rested, but the Jets are on more of a roll.
One more area where the teams are even: The Steelers have an offensive coordinator thought to be an idiot by the fans. The Jets have an offensive coordinator thought to be an idiot by the fans.
This information is presented to show how hard it is to try and predict a winner. And even the most learned of experts cannot account for a fumble inside the 10, an interception returned for a TD, a field-goal attempt blocked and returned for a TD. Those things happen and no one can predict when or by which team.
But this game being what it is, and after having admitting I have no business trying to pick a winner, I will:
Had I wished to drive up the ‘’hits’’ on this blog, which is what some people think is my primary, if not sole, reason for writing what I do, I’d take the Jets and await the avalanche of outrage.
Instead: Steelers, 23-20.

doesn't look so good unless they have like a lot of turnovers".
is supposed to be the number 8.
written by GenoSid, January 23, 2011 - 07:16 AM
I find it beyond absurd when people try to predict the score, BUT also how the score will come to be...
Regarding today's game, I agree with the many people who have said that if both teams play well, we win (semi) comfortably...meaning the game will be over by the 2 minute warning.
If the Steelers play averagely and the Jets play great...then who knows...
But the Pittsburgh Steelers are the better team. There is no question about that. I expect us to prove that today.
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"I really don't care. You smash him in the mouth, he's going to smash back, whatever," Cromartie said. "Does he do it while you're not looking? Yeah, he does. But who doesn't?" The Jets corner allowed that Ward's hits "can be" dirty. When such hits occur, Cromartie suggests that players "grab [him] by the throat and choke [him]."
Steelers, are you listening? Anybody says something like that about my teammate, well, maybe I'd have to just formally introduce myself more than a few times- just so they get to know me REAL well.
By the way, since when did Cromartie become some physical beast? Everything I've ever read on the guy is that the weak point of his game is the contact part, which he prefers to keep to a minimum. I hope Hines comes to greet him more than a few times.