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Sports Bob Smizik's Blog Taillon projected as No. 2, 3 starter
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Saturday, 21 January 2012 14:15
Mike Newman of FanGraphs looks beyond the numbers of Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and makes this statement: ``Do I love Taillon as a solid 2/3 at the Major League level? Absolutely, but not as the true ace so many are projecting him to be.''
Keep in mind, this is one man's opinion.
By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon‘s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).
Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.
In terms of size and physical development, Jameson Taillon is about as perfect a specimen as one could hope to find. Projecting for both power and durability, it’s easy to envision Taillon averaging 200 innings pitched per season in much more than the generic “workhorse” capacity. My only minor concern is that Taillon did not appear particularly athletic, but having pitched the season at 19, it’s quite possible the slight awkwardness may simply be due to maturing into his 6-foot-6 frame.
Read the rest of the story.
Comments (40)
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 12:44 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 12:44 PM
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Heresy!! The Unbelievers shall pay for their sins and burn For All Eternity!
This man clearly is making silly claims and throwing around industry terms like "wrist wrap" just to make it sound like he knows what he is talking about.
Jameson Taillon is a Superstar in the Making and let no one contradict it!
Jose
Heresy!! The Unbelievers shall pay for their sins and burn For All Eternity!
This man clearly is making silly claims and throwing around industry terms like "wrist wrap" just to make it sound like he knows what he is talking about.
Jameson Taillon is a Superstar in the Making and let no one contradict it!
Jose
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 12:46 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 12:46 PM
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Remember: Neal told Us All that Jeff Clement had "Light Tower Power." All should listen to Neal, and Believe.
We saw how that turned out.
Jose
Remember: Neal told Us All that Jeff Clement had "Light Tower Power." All should listen to Neal, and Believe.
We saw how that turned out.
Jose
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written by LetsgoBucs, January 21, 2012 - 12:47 PM
written by LetsgoBucs, January 21, 2012 - 12:47 PM
I saw Taillon pitch 4 times last year and I tend to agree with the writer that he is pretty raw but that is to be expected for a HS kid in his 1st pro season. I also agree that it is a pretty outrageous statement to proclaim him a #2/3 starter at this stage of his career.
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written by LetsgoBucs, January 21, 2012 - 12:54 PM
Clement did have "Light Tower Power." his problem was his inability to make consistent contact and to stay healthy.
written by LetsgoBucs, January 21, 2012 - 12:54 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:46 PM
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Remember: Neal told Us All that Jeff Clement had "Light Tower Power." All should listen to Neal, and Believe.
We saw how that turned out.
Jose
Clement did have "Light Tower Power." his problem was his inability to make consistent contact and to stay healthy.
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 12:57 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 12:57 PM
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Is it any less outrageous to project him as a Number One starter?
Jose
Is it any less outrageous to project him as a Number One starter?
Jose
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written by JohnstownRuss, January 21, 2012 - 01:00 PM
written by JohnstownRuss, January 21, 2012 - 01:00 PM
not to change the subject, but how about Carlos Pena signing for 7M and change? i would have liked him more for a year than D. Lee.
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written by DEMERY 44, January 21, 2012 - 01:02 PM
written by DEMERY 44, January 21, 2012 - 01:02 PM
He projects John Lackey more than Josh Beckett.
That sounds about right.
That sounds about right.
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:04 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:04 PM
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I liked Pena a heck of a lot better than G. Jones and McGehee platooning at 1B, for sure.
I do not find $7.25 mil excessive, either, although it may have taken more to get him to come here.
Jose
I liked Pena a heck of a lot better than G. Jones and McGehee platooning at 1B, for sure.
I do not find $7.25 mil excessive, either, although it may have taken more to get him to come here.
Jose
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written by LetsgoBucs, January 21, 2012 - 01:08 PM
I wouldn't project him anywhere at this point in his career but with his pedigree, physical skills and raw stuff I would error on him being a #1 until he proves he isn’t.
written by LetsgoBucs, January 21, 2012 - 01:08 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:57 PM
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Is it any less outrageous to project him as a Number One starter?
Jose
I wouldn't project him anywhere at this point in his career but with his pedigree, physical skills and raw stuff I would error on him being a #1 until he proves he isn’t.
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:11 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:11 PM
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Or we could follow evidence-based practices and watch him develop, rather than hanging a projection based on "pedigree."
Jose
Or we could follow evidence-based practices and watch him develop, rather than hanging a projection based on "pedigree."
Jose
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written by B to the C, January 21, 2012 - 01:12 PM
Error? Really?
That said, you would not project him yet, but you would project him as a #1 until he proves he wasn't?
Is this some sort of bad comedy routine or something?
written by B to the C, January 21, 2012 - 01:12 PM
I wouldn't project him anywhere at this point in his career but with his pedigree, physical skills and raw stuff I would error on him being a #1 until he proves he isn’t.
Error? Really?
That said, you would not project him yet, but you would project him as a #1 until he proves he wasn't?
Is this some sort of bad comedy routine or something?
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:17 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:17 PM
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Funny, isn't it B to the C? Yesterday my posts were "silly" because they were unproven assertions based on my lack of knowledge.
Today it is appropriate to project Taillon as a #1 until he proves he isn't despite the lack of objective data that demonstrates that he is.
This is almost better than Firesign Theater.
Jose
Funny, isn't it B to the C? Yesterday my posts were "silly" because they were unproven assertions based on my lack of knowledge.
Today it is appropriate to project Taillon as a #1 until he proves he isn't despite the lack of objective data that demonstrates that he is.
This is almost better than Firesign Theater.
Jose
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:20 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:20 PM
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"...I was sitting listening to the staccato of rain against my window, reading my name backwards on the door: regnaD kciN..."
Jose
"...I was sitting listening to the staccato of rain against my window, reading my name backwards on the door: regnaD kciN..."
Jose
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written by kison25, January 21, 2012 - 01:25 PM
written by kison25, January 21, 2012 - 01:25 PM
In fairness to the Pirates, Pena took $7.25 million to go back to a playoff team and an organization that he enjoys. The Pirates would have had to be way over that mark to have any chance.
As far as Taillon? First year in minors and he's working on mechanics and was on tight pitch count. Kind of hard to project off that.
As far as Taillon? First year in minors and he's working on mechanics and was on tight pitch count. Kind of hard to project off that.
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written by bdubb, January 21, 2012 - 01:34 PM
written by bdubb, January 21, 2012 - 01:34 PM
I find it silly for him to write the article before he plays he second full season in pro ball (and the way the Pirates protected him with his innings this will really be season 1-B). Was Brad Lincoln projected a #1? That didn't hold true. Time will tell. If he has a hammer curve, a late breaking slider and throws 95 then tell me how that isn't a #1 starter? Because his changeup isn't developed as a 19 year old? Why would he even throw a change up in high school and let kids catch up to it?
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written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:36 PM
written by JosePagan, January 21, 2012 - 01:36 PM
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@ kison: Honestly, I was wondering what it would take to get Pena here. The $7.25 he got from TB is probably way less than he would have wanted to sign here. TB, unlike the Cubs or the PBC, has a shot to contend. At his career stage that is probably a big incentive.
Jose
@ kison: Honestly, I was wondering what it would take to get Pena here. The $7.25 he got from TB is probably way less than he would have wanted to sign here. TB, unlike the Cubs or the PBC, has a shot to contend. At his career stage that is probably a big incentive.
Jose
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written by Batavia, January 21, 2012 - 01:49 PM
written by Batavia, January 21, 2012 - 01:49 PM
Seems a little early to know what he will be. Could turn out to be a 5, could wash out and not make it. My guess is that there are a lot of guys who throw as hard as him that never make it past AA. Hard stuff to predict. Sort of like pciking stocks.
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written by BFD, January 21, 2012 - 01:54 PM
written by BFD, January 21, 2012 - 01:54 PM
How dare this guy question neals propaganda & sunshine & rainbow speeches. He will be an ace. Neal says so
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written by Daquido_Bazzini, January 21, 2012 - 02:03 PM
written by Daquido_Bazzini, January 21, 2012 - 02:03 PM
A waste of time and a way to pretend like your spending some money, when in reality.....Your spending a mere fraction of what you "should" be spending on current MLB players.
My new motto?.....I don't wanna hear about a guy unless he's a possibility to be called up by mid season at the latest.
I won't waste my time on such hogwash, mish-mash and pork belly fat.
My new motto?.....I don't wanna hear about a guy unless he's a possibility to be called up by mid season at the latest.
I won't waste my time on such hogwash, mish-mash and pork belly fat.
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written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 02:04 PM
written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 02:04 PM
This guy is writing for a website that usually gets bashed on here for pandering to the "geeks" and "pimple popper watchers", but now is being lauded because he claims after one viewing that Taillon will ONLY be a John Lackey?
The article, along with the premise of accurately "projecting" a 19 yo after one look, is garbage.
But how is a comparison to John Lackey a knock on Neal Huntingdon?
Nevermind, I know the answer.
The article, along with the premise of accurately "projecting" a 19 yo after one look, is garbage.
But how is a comparison to John Lackey a knock on Neal Huntingdon?
Nevermind, I know the answer.
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written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 02:07 PM
Yet you'll spend hours on a small regional newspaper blog writing about how you won't waste your time on such hogwash, mish-mash and pork belly fat.
Makes sense.
written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 02:07 PM
I won't waste my time on such hogwash, mish-mash and pork belly fat.
Yet you'll spend hours on a small regional newspaper blog writing about how you won't waste your time on such hogwash, mish-mash and pork belly fat.
Makes sense.
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written by BFD, January 21, 2012 - 02:08 PM
True. That being said if he's projectimg a 2/3. Its probable a #5
written by BFD, January 21, 2012 - 02:08 PM
This guy is writing for a website that usually gets bashed on here for pandering to the "geeks" and "pimple popper watchers"
True. That being said if he's projectimg a 2/3. Its probable a #5
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written by heartbeatsings, January 21, 2012 - 02:16 PM
Well, to give NH his props, we haven't had a 2/3 starter since, probably, Denny Neagle or Jason Schmidt.
Our 'aces' are typically other teams #5 or spot starters.
written by heartbeatsings, January 21, 2012 - 02:16 PM
Well, to give NH his props, we haven't had a 2/3 starter since, probably, Denny Neagle or Jason Schmidt.
Our 'aces' are typically other teams #5 or spot starters.
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written by Burgher in California, January 21, 2012 - 02:23 PM
written by Burgher in California, January 21, 2012 - 02:23 PM
Given the track record of the Pirates' farm system, I'll believe this kid is any good when I see him in the bigs.
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written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 02:23 PM
I was shaking my head when the author, correctly, said the Pirates haven't had a starter of that caliber since Doug Drabek.
Think about that!
written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 02:23 PM
Well, to give NH his props, we haven't had a 2/3 starter since, probably, Denny Neagle or Jason Schmidt.
I was shaking my head when the author, correctly, said the Pirates haven't had a starter of that caliber since Doug Drabek.
Think about that!
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written by burgh1972, January 21, 2012 - 02:24 PM
From co-chairman of Texas Rangers. Nutting, Connelly and other FO employees of the Pirates take note. They're making moves to create a dynasty and note it takes more than signing Clint Barmes.......
written by burgh1972, January 21, 2012 - 02:24 PM
"We're writing checks to make this stuff happen, but at some point it's got to sustain itself and we understand that," Simpson said. "Winning comes first and then support comes. You can't ask fans to come to every game while you're losing and have them help you increase your revenues. You're trying to take it to a new level, a sustainable level, where it is a dynasty franchise like the Dallas Cowboys achieved. Then in the off-years, and inevitably you'll have some, they still support you."
From co-chairman of Texas Rangers. Nutting, Connelly and other FO employees of the Pirates take note. They're making moves to create a dynasty and note it takes more than signing Clint Barmes.......
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written by ISIS, January 21, 2012 - 02:40 PM
written by ISIS, January 21, 2012 - 02:40 PM
By the time Taillon makes it to AAA, he will have had his delivery tweaked so many times it will be time for Tommy John surgery, which then he will join the ranks of Brad "stinkin" Lincoln.
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written by DocJeanO, January 21, 2012 - 02:57 PM
written by DocJeanO, January 21, 2012 - 02:57 PM
Yeah, NMR, and now Doug's son is pitching in the major leagues. Wow, how old are we....?
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written by BUCCS72, January 21, 2012 - 03:28 PM
written by BUCCS72, January 21, 2012 - 03:28 PM
Heartbeatsings is on the right track.....could be both the writer and all of the pro spinners have it right. A legitimate #2 or #3 starter on just about any MLB team would be the Pirates' ace #1 starter.
But I can't get excited about how any prospect looks throwing in Low Class A or how anyone rates him. As Pirates fans have been shown time and time again, A LOT can and usually does happen to prospects on their way from Low Class A to MLB. And most of the stuff that happens ain't good. So the reality is that the odds of Tallion ever being any kind of starter with the Pirates may not be much better than 50-50.
As for Pena signing elsewhere....my guess says the Pirates never even seriously thought about making him any offer and are probably happy to see him sign so Pirates fans don't continue to pine for him, Lee or any other significant FA. The sooner Lee and Jackson and Oswalt, etc. sign elswhere...the better for the $5 Million/year/player max salary cap Pirates. As soon as all of those guys are signed, the sooner NH can start picking through the leftovers in the FA dumpster in earnest pointing out that most players have signed at well above their internal value.
But I can't get excited about how any prospect looks throwing in Low Class A or how anyone rates him. As Pirates fans have been shown time and time again, A LOT can and usually does happen to prospects on their way from Low Class A to MLB. And most of the stuff that happens ain't good. So the reality is that the odds of Tallion ever being any kind of starter with the Pirates may not be much better than 50-50.
As for Pena signing elsewhere....my guess says the Pirates never even seriously thought about making him any offer and are probably happy to see him sign so Pirates fans don't continue to pine for him, Lee or any other significant FA. The sooner Lee and Jackson and Oswalt, etc. sign elswhere...the better for the $5 Million/year/player max salary cap Pirates. As soon as all of those guys are signed, the sooner NH can start picking through the leftovers in the FA dumpster in earnest pointing out that most players have signed at well above their internal value.
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written by heartbeatsings, January 21, 2012 - 04:07 PM
The thing about Pena is that it's hard to believe the bucs couldn't get him from the Cubs last year.
written by heartbeatsings, January 21, 2012 - 04:07 PM
The thing about Pena is that it's hard to believe the bucs couldn't get him from the Cubs last year.
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written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 05:25 PM
written by NMR, January 21, 2012 - 05:25 PM
@ heartbeat
Come on, man, you know better than that! What WOULD be hard to beleive is Neal making a trade where he had to give up a legit prospect, which Pena would've fetched.
Come on, man, you know better than that! What WOULD be hard to beleive is Neal making a trade where he had to give up a legit prospect, which Pena would've fetched.
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written by buccs1960, January 21, 2012 - 05:50 PM
written by buccs1960, January 21, 2012 - 05:50 PM
This is the danger of all of the people banking on the minors. There are many people who think he is a top of the rotation legit ace. You don't get ranked in the top ten if that isn't the case. Here is someone who has some reservations about that. Suppose he is right? If he's right the Pirates are in worse trouble thean people thought. He could even be over estimating Taillon. That would be disastrous. He has the potential to be an ace on any staff, but until he is it means zero.
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written by roger roger, January 21, 2012 - 08:41 PM
Yep.
This article is a classic case of Deja Moo!!
How many times have we heard about the pimple-poppers coming to save the day in Pittsburgh??
Deja Moo!!!
written by roger roger, January 21, 2012 - 08:41 PM
Yep.
This article is a classic case of Deja Moo!!
How many times have we heard about the pimple-poppers coming to save the day in Pittsburgh??
Deja Moo!!!
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written by kevin morris, January 22, 2012 - 07:06 AM
written by kevin morris, January 22, 2012 - 07:06 AM
I hear rumors the Bucco braintrust has decided to move him to first base to take advantage of his height, recognizing his awkward motion may lead to future arm troubles.
Ortho docs don't come cheap, you know.
Ortho docs don't come cheap, you know.
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written by Curmudgeon, January 22, 2012 - 08:53 AM
written by Curmudgeon, January 22, 2012 - 08:53 AM
Concerning the Pirates and this article, two quotes come to mind:
"He who lives on hope will die fasting."
Benjamin Franklin
"Lord save us all from a hope tree that has lost the faculty of putting out blossoms."
Mark Twain
"He who lives on hope will die fasting."
Benjamin Franklin
"Lord save us all from a hope tree that has lost the faculty of putting out blossoms."
Mark Twain
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written by Kenny Powers, January 22, 2012 - 09:32 AM
written by Kenny Powers, January 22, 2012 - 09:32 AM
written by Daquido_Bazzini
My new motto?.....I don't wanna hear about a guy unless he's a possibility to be called up by mid season at the latest.
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Amen, brother.
Potential means nothing, performance means everything!
My new motto?.....I don't wanna hear about a guy unless he's a possibility to be called up by mid season at the latest.
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Amen, brother.
Potential means nothing, performance means everything!
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Now that's professionalism at it's finest.
Taillon has a bigger chance of never getting that fastball down enough to get big league hitters out than he does of being a "solid 2/3" starter, statistically speaking.
To come out and claim after one look that you can foresee the difference between one spot in the rotation 4-5 years down the road is just flat out hilarious.
How do these guys get writing jobs, let alone scouting?