This would be a terrible trade for the Pirates no matter how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees pick up. Burnett has been terrible the last 2 years, and is on the downside of his career. He is also a well known head case.


Garrett Jones isn't the greatest first baseman in the game, but he is the best option they currently have.

This organization STINKS

I would rather have Garrett Jones than A.J. Burnett.

Tim over at Pirates Prospects does a good job of analyzing the potential trade. Determining Burnett's value, and suggesting what it would take for the deal to make sense for Pittsburgh (both in terms of taking on salary and/or what they'd give up).

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/02/trade-values-a-j-burnett-and-garrett-jones.html

I've heard it suggested that Burnett is similar to Matt Morris. But his performance last season is certainly superior to the numbers Morris put up before being trading to the Pirates. Burnett is still throwing at 93 mph on average and striking out 8 per 9 innings, while Morris was striking out only 4.83 per 9. From the looks of if the Pirates were to acquire Burnett it would come at lower cost than Morris. So not only is his value higher but his cost is lower.

I know a lot of folks deride statistics like FIP. But the whole purpose of those stats are to try and get a handle on what someone might do next year. If you're Burnett and your FIP is much lower than your ERA it suggests with some combination of a different park (PNC vs. Yankee Stadium), better defense, and better luck you might put up better numbers.

It's possible that Burnett might decline sharply, given his age (he just turned 35) but nothing in his performance last years suggests that as a likely outcome.

As Tim writes in his post whether or not it makes sense to acquire Burnett is really a matter of how the cost vs. value ratio and what you have to give up in return. It doesn't seem like there's a lot of interest from other teams at this point. So if the Pirates can negotiate a better deal what's currently proposed, giving up someone of less value than Jones while acquiring Burnett at a good value I say go for it.



Very well stated. -- Bob Smizik

Don't do it Nutting. This trade would be a good deal for a contender, but for the Pirates it is a disaster to throw away any kind of money on Burnett.
Spend your money wisely Nutting, not stupidly.
You had your chance with young, up and coming pitchers and you looked the other way. Maybe next year....

r.j.,

Great post! Thanks.

Thanks Richard. Definitely check out Tim's article. He always does great work.

BMTIB may be inept and liars..... but they aren't apparently THAT stupid. Yankees think they can take advantage of the Pirates. Hey.... BMTIB have shown they're not serious about baseball.... so why not try it? Worst we could do is day no right? Jones ain't all that.....but he's better than playing with only 8. Burnett not worth the risk. Bob said it.... if AJ can't post decent numbers with Yankee run support..... whooooo. Hey.... we'll throw in Jones if they throw in Cano.

BFD- you always complain. How about offer actual suggestions. What moves do you want the pirates to make?

Don't know Jones that well but the Yanks invited another left handed bomber to spring training...was with the Giants last year. For the Pirates sake, unless Burnett is nearly free,,,I sincerely hope they do not do this.

Bob, Burnett's ERA is a concern, but please consider the fact he'd be moving to a weak(er) division. Plus he would not have the NY pressure, though there is no way to tell if this is a factor for him. We know what we have with Jones, but if Burnett could be a shadow of his old self he would add much more value to the team. If he has a good first half, he becomes a trading chip as well. I say pull the trigger on this deal and go hard after Derek Lee (assuming he'd even want to be here).



Good point about the weaker division. I would not disagree. The guy has some upside. He can still throw hard. -- Bob Smizik

Why is it that the most interesting thing about the Pirates are things that don't happen?

Oh, forgot to add to my last post, wins are NOT a pitching stat! It's a team stat! The team was 21-26 when he pitched, partly due to him, but partly due to the other players.

I'd be hesitant to trade Jones for Burnett even if the Yankees were picking up all of Burnett's salary.

http://bobmccarty.com/wp-conte...-money.jpg

http://edge-img.datpiff.com/mf...-large.jpg

I know one guy who wants this trade to happen, Garrett Jones. Wouldn't you love to go from baseball hell to a team that has a good chance of getting a ring? I know I would.

I also know someone who doesn't want this trade to happen, Burnett. Would you want to go from a perennial contender to the team with the longest losing streak in N American professional sports?

I personally don't care if the Pirates pick up ALL of AJ's salary, it's not my money.

written by bucsfan1978, February 09, 2012 - 09:43 PM
BFD- you always complain. How about offer actual suggestions. What moves do you want the pirates to make?

Do you know what is even worse bucsfan? Your only post is complaining about BFD complaining. IRONY!!!!

Astute comment, Stanch70. I love it! Sadly, it's right on the mark.

I mean "danch70"...but you/he probably figured that out. Sorry, it's getting late.

I personally don't care if the Pirates pick up ALL of AJ's salary, it's not my money - Sirius

Yes, Mr. Nutting, please pick up all of Burnett's remaining salary - since it isn't my money - rather than using that $33 million to convince Roy Oswalt that he really does want to come to Pittsburgh.

Just spend the money. In fact, don't wait for Burnett. Give the $33 million to Ross Ohlendorf. He's still available.

Believe it or not, there is actually an exact example of this same situation occurring in Pirates history, about 26 years ago.

In 1985, a 35 year-old Rick Rueschel had just completed a 5-5 season for the Cubs in which he had only started 14 games, and had a 5.17 ERA. The Bucs were trying desperately to put together a squad that could contend again after a series of 5 seasons out of the playoffs followed their 1979 We Are Family, Stargell and company World Series victory over the Orioles.

The picked up Rueschel, and he went on to have 2 1/2 winning seasons for the Pirates in the next 3 1/2 seasons, with ERA's never above 3.96 and as low as 2.27 for a full season. He won 44 games as a Pirate, and helped to turn them into the team that would be a legitimate division title contender by 1988.

Rueschel was known as a wily veteran with an impressive number of different pitches. While in Pittsburgh, he was known for working with the young guns like Doug Drabek, John Smiley, Bob Patterson, and Bob Walk, who pitched for the Bucs for all or part of the team's 1990-1992 run to the NLCS.

they should do it. always need pitching and Burnett could be really good in the NL. pitching is much harder to get than average hitting 1st baseman. All they are asking for is Garrett Jones??? Do it! Not insinuating this would put them in the running for the NL Central but with Pujols and Fielder gone and Braun suspended, who knows?

One of the only reasons I would be okay with getting AJ Burnetts 5.20 era is that is an innings eating machine. We saw first hand last year where the Buccos pitching staff broke down in August and some were put on innings limits late in the year. It would be good for the staff to add almost guaranteed 200 innings. It would be good for our young pitchers to watch his routines and how he prepares to take on a 200 inning work load. What I don't think our fans realize is that the first 2 years Cole and Taillon play in the bigs, they'll be on a strict innings count which will add much extra work for the relievers. Today and over the next few years the Pirates will need someone to bear the extra innings until our young pitchers can go a full season.

That's also what made Edwin Jackson such a good fit for the Pirates. He pitches 200 innings every season.

*t might be a good deal in the sense that they could trade Burnett at the deadline and get some major league ready and good prospects. Pitching is a premium at the deadline and any sort of half decent season from Burnett (esp. if Yankees are paying most of the salary) would yield a nice return. Plus, Garrett Jones is terrible, I don't really know why the Yankees would even want him.

Burnett's 5.20 era is mostly due to a handful of terrible starts (duh). The NL in general is no where near the AL in terms of firepower offensively. I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA in a pitchers park in Pittsburgh was 4.50 with many innings pitched.

I don't want to get a reputation on here as a Pirates supporter. So I'll end with the Pittsburgh is MLB hell. Who in their right mind would want to pitch/play in Pittsburgh? Certainly not Edwin Jackson. The Pirates also tried to talk to Roy Oswalt who essentially said don't even bother. The Pirates can talk about "internal value", and all of those cute little things but the bottom line is they won't get better in free agency unless they are willing to significantly overpay. Trading is the only option they have, too bad they don't have much to give their either.

jonsmiley - You mean his record of 21-26 could partly be due to other players like A-Rod, Jeter, Granderson, Texeira, Cano, Rivera, Swisher, Gardner, etc? Boy would he be in for a rude awakening if he came here.

Can we face the cold, hard facts? If the Yankees were really trying to WIN NOW, they would have spent the $250 million necessary to make Prince Fielder their DH instead of coming begging for Garrett Jones.

Fielder was not going to sign with anybody to be a DH. He wants to play 1B. That position for the NYY is ably manned by Teixeira who would also refuse to become a DH. No room for Fielder on the NYY.

If the Yanks are willing to pay 80% of Burnett's salary, why wouldnt the Pennies make this deal?

Dont forget, they thought so highly of Jones at 1st base, that they offered Lee $8 MM to play first.

Burnett (even though he has stunk the past 2 years), would be no worse than the Pennies 2nd or 3rd starter. If they only have to pay $3-4 MM a year for him, why not do it?? He would be an innings eater, and those are not a common commodity in baseball.

Besides, knowing NH well, if Burnett does ok here, he can always be traded for more prospects.

I really dont see what there is to lose here.

I say do it for Garrett. He deserves a break. I would miss him if they actually gave him a chance here, but that will never happen.

I see lots of upside. I don't see a lot of risk. Go for it. Maybe we catch lightning in a bottle.

I crack up at those who say Pirates management stinks whenever they cannot afford the best free agents. LOL. Its not always about being cheap. It is about fiscal responsibility. We almost lost the Pirates a while back because of this short term mind set and loose spending.

what is the hold up? sounds like the BMTIB had their bluff called by the Yankees and had to backpedal

as for a replacement for Garrett "GI" Jones' replacement, we can find an equal fielder among dogs at the humane society and i am not so sure they wouldn't hit just as well.

I say do it for Garrett. He deserves a break. I would miss him if they actually gave him a chance here, but that will never happen.

What more of a chance does he need? He has had ample opportunity to prove he sucks and he has accomplished that/

giving up someone of less value than Jones

Well, since we dumped Overbay last year, the only person of lesser value than Jones is probably Jeff Clement, who I believe is back in the Pirates system.

Seriously, though, I do this deal in a, well, heartbeat. He's a legitimate big league starter, it's not a long term deal and the Pirates have the money to pay him $6 or $7 milion a year. And Jones has absolutely no upside.

If he comes to Pittsburgh and is healthy, he's their opening day starter.

Excellent post, Bob. I look at Burnett and see a pitcher who implodes under pressure and would hate to see him teach our young pitchers that. But that could have just been the pressure of NYY. At this time there is no real pressure in the Burgh so he might be a good fit. I remember bloggers last season clamoring for Hague to be brought up and how he was a great choice for 1st. If all they want is Jones and are willing to pay the majority of Burnett's salary it is worth a try. It is not like the Yankees are 'raping' our major and minor league rosters.

written by Richard Jarzynka www.BIPOLARMAN.org, February 09, 2012 - 10:39 PM

I personally don't care if the Pirates pick up ALL of AJ's salary, it's not my money - Sirius



Yes, Mr. Nutting, please pick up all of Burnett's remaining salary - since it isn't my money - rather than using that $33 million to convince Roy Oswalt that he really does want to come to Pittsburgh.

Just spend the money. In fact, don't wait for Burnett. Give the $33 million to Ross Ohlendorf. He's still available.

Typical Bipolar. He really has no choice but to throw out straw men because he has no good arguments.

Why do you protect BN's money like it was your own? Why do you care? Are you in his will or something?

I could care less how much it costs to put a good team on the field. I want good players and a winning team with a chance at the post season. After 19 years, I really don't think it's too much to ask.

Thanks for pointing out the irony in our "new" posters (bucsfan197 post.

And to his point about me complaining, I did not complain. I stated a FACT. THe organization DOES STINK like a pig in sh*t

I would do this deal in a second. Burnett is a much better pitcher than people here are giving him credit for. Jones is a below average 1st basemen. He would be replaced by another below average 1st basemen, but the dropoff wouldn't be much.

Salary wise Jones is going to get over 2 million. His replacement (on the roster not the lineup) very well make the major league minimum. When you factor that in the added salary isn't as much as one would first think. Do it, the team needs another starter badly.

Well, let's see, Burnett is 21-26 in the last two seasons, that should place him somewhere in the 10-15 million a year category, if he wasn't already signed to a contract. Considering that Jackson was worth 10 million a year for a 500 won-lost record over the last three years.

The insanity of it all would be hilarious if it weren't so sad. If you truly want to be born with a "silver spoon" in your mouth, make sure you are born a mediocre MLB pitcher.

Since the Pirates can take on some salary, I would prefer they do that and give the Yankees a lesser player in return. I'm not saying take on the whole fartin' contract. I just don't want to plug one hole but create another. Perhaps McGahee or Matt Hague could step and take the load. If they absolutely must have Jones, I'd ask for a prospect in addition to Burnett. Someone around the 8-12 "best" in their organization, preferably in AA or higher.

I would love to see this deal made!

Burnett is not as bad as his stats.

I would make the deal and, as I said yesterday, get them to throw in Swisher at any cost.

If you can't get Swisher, go for a vg AA prospect.

Hague AND McGehee can platoon at 1B.

Make it happen!!!!

Since the Pirates can take on some salary, I would prefer they do that and give the Yankees a lesser player in return.

@greg: I may be all wet, but I would guess that the Pirates are probably very happy that they found someone who actually wants Garret Jones. The hold up is one of two things:

1-Hurdle doesn't want Burnett

or

2-They want the Yanks to pay more money.

Garrett Jones isn't the greatest first baseman in the game, but he is the best option they currently have.

Great quote when Bill Madlock said that about him being the third baseman in 1979. Garrett Jones is no Bill Madlock.

You have the chance to get a decent starting pitcher, and all you have to give up is Garrett Jones. If the odds are 1 in 10 it's a good bet.

Sirius,

I personally don't care if the Pirates pick up ALL of AJ's salary, it's not my money - Sirius [/quote

You asked me to respond to your "straw man" charge. I feel comfortable with letting your above quoted profundity speak for itself.

Do you even know aht a straw man is?

I'll point out your straw men because your little disorder obviously keeps you from seeing the lameness of your argument.

Yes, Mr. Nutting, please pick up all of Burnett's remaining salary - since it isn't my money - rather than using that $33 million to convince Roy Oswalt that he really does want to come to Pittsburgh.

Just spend the money. In fact, don't wait for Burnett. Give the $33 million to Ross Ohlendorf. He's still available.

Everything you wrote there was written by YOU, not me. That whole statement by you was a straw man argument

Definition:
A straw man is a component of an argument and is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position. To "attack a straw man" is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition (the "straw man"), and refuting it, without ever having actually refuted the original position.

The Straw Man is a type of Red Herring because the arguer is attempting to refute his opponent's position, and in the context is required to do so, but instead attacks a position—the "straw man"—not held by his opponent.


That is exactly what you did above, you petty p***k.

Thoughts:

- I really can't believe there is any discussion on this one. Trading a dumpster dive player for a legitimate ML starting pitcher is a no brainer.

- I'd like to congratulate many of the posters above for focusing on their thoughts on the trade vs. how this will impact poor bobby nuttings wallet.

How many more guys do we need with an ERA over 5? As for Jones, we lost 100 games with him, we can lose 100 without him.